A very Happy Christmas to one and all! Hopefully you and your families had a lovely day yesterday? Let’s also trust for a settled, positive 2026 with resolution to long-outstanding issues like the Russian aggression against Ukraine and some dynamic and long-term solutions for Israel and the Palestinians.
We have had some good economic news – inflation is down at 3.2% but probably as much as anything from consumer and business inertia pre-budget so not especially positive. However, it all leads to lower interest rates anyway.
Maybe seen as positive news too – alcoholic consumption, especially amongst the younger element, has been falling quite significantly. The cost is not cheap but whether this will also leave more money in the pockets of those who most need it is yet to be seen, as apparently rather more is being spent on cocktails instead… of course, the Taxman will also be losing-out as well and this is all yet more pressure on pubs but hopefully the NHS will be a winner with fewer alcohol-related diseases too. Of course, there is still smoking and vaping to tackle – recent trends have not mirrored alcohol consumption and despite the colossal cost, afforded easily it seems, even by the ‘poor’ oddly enough.
What have been our rip-roaring successes this year? Silver and precious metal miners have generated embarrassingly good results for us, lifting all related boats and whilst overall still small proportions of the total assets we manage, most investors elsewhere won’t have had any or hardly any at all as the sector has been so out of favour for so long (which was one of the core and simple reasons we owned it – it was far too cheap).
We’ve sold some too soon but could we really complain? No. Silver has more than doubled in the year and miners are highly geared to the base price of course (Fresnillo started the year at £6.21 but is now approaching £33 and having become a £24billion company – ridiculous!)
But what does the difference make to a very diversified, overall balanced strategy such as with ourselves? If ‘it’ adds even say 2-5% to total returns over that time, that’s a colossal long-term extra outcome for patient investors and higher returns than strategies which ‘don’t have any’, on top of the ‘normal’ returns they could have expected anyway. If your adviser didn’t have any of that for you then frankly it was a low risk, bonus return you will never make-up.
Our yields during the year have been very strong too, with an average of over 5% income from the start of the year on top of capital movements so when that is added to the ‘bonus’ return from an unloved asset class becoming too loved and a few overall percentage points on other more ‘normal’ assets, it reflects a very handsome year for our investors and not fuelled by excessive valuations across the Pond. And of course, the weekend press is all about how people can invest in gold and silver now… zzz. Yes, I suspect there is a little more to come but now prices are too high so expect some volatility (polite word for nasty upsets) – at some point but why wait when other cheap, unloved asset classes are there for the plucking meantime? We are selling some more silver today.
Whether the Wise men would have been able to afford to give Baby Jesus gold at these prices is now a moot point perhaps! Still, the price of 5ml of Myrrh essential oil (Amazon Price tracker) has fallen from $130 in 2019 to $16 now and 15ml of Frankincense oil has risen from $66 in 2018 to $105 now, so maybe it’s swings and roundabouts!
Living within our means
And what are we meant to believe at Christmas? The ‘cost of living’ crisis is seeing record numbers (and from all echelons of Society) flying overseas on holiday yet retail sales have been weak (suspect still an overhang from the deferred Budget with all its pre-budget frighteners). Then there is this fallacy about ‘children living in poverty’ in the UK.
That’s not to say it is a fallacy but it is measured as follows:- ‘Children living in households earning less than 60% of the national median income’, adjusted for household size. So if the median income figure rises, the nominal numbers below that percentile will increase despite nothing whatsoever happening to ’them’. Likewise, if the median income falls (eg a lack of economic growth or recession and more on benefits) then that doesn’t help the ‘poor’ at all but the figures will improve simply if the billionaires’ income leaves the equation…
We seem frightened to consider ‘absolute poverty’ which in reality should be the numbers who truly cannot afford necessary things and not the plethora of discretionary things of which it seems modern society believes are imperative as opposed to ‘if or when you can afford them’. The former concepts are also predicated on a socialist idyll of unattainable ‘equality’ across all realms and ‘comparatives with what everyone else has’ as opposed to failing to stop and rejoicing about how things have advanced universally and so much over the decades in terms of what the ‘poor’ now enjoys and can now take for granted, including far superior health, food, housing, clothes, education and prospects.
Just noting the big Christmas ‘shop’ and the lack of parking spaces in the giant supermarket car park put things in perspective when there are still 800million surviving on less than $3 a day (£2.20 – £67pm). Let us hope that however our Christmas goes, we are grateful for what we have and remember those less fortunate than our wealthy selves here in the affluent west.
We are also frightened to recognise that the major portion of ‘poor’ within any statistical analysis comes from single parent households, a status which our benefit system has been designed to encourage (all well-intended but and it is a trap) and yet likewise, we seem unwilling to do anything much at all to help encourage, cement, challenge and support committed relationships and especially for those involved in the raising of children, the biggest victims in relationship breakdown.
The fact that our levels are twice those on the Continent are not often reported nor that half of teenage children are being raised without a father at home. This isn’t judgment but simply facts. If we don’t recognise these, as a Society, let alone individuals, how can we be compassionate to those in true need and make policy adjustments to help?
Be careful – the slippery path
I watched the documentary by investigative journalist, Chloe Hadjimatheou about ‘Moth and Raynor Winn’ and found it fascinating and indeed sad too.
I have come across people who are happy to say anything and to anyone, in public, broadcast or even in court, as they don’t care about the possible consequences because all they think about is that lying might just help them, so they think, to success or more likely – money. They also don’t care the harm they may cause to someone else – even a nearest and dearest, a loved one.
I have seen early death from the stress inflicted on the victims of such people, fraudsters, psychopaths and scammers and even in this case, one wonders where the official bodies were when it comes to crimes committed and revealed. The cynic notes that the extra publicity here resulted in even more books being sold and money generated for them, in itself a well-written tale but not accurate ‘memoirs’. I wonder if guilt might mean that at some point from their new-found riches they may find it in themselves to repay those they may have wronged financially, accusations which they both deny, I should add.
Why am I sharing this? Because over the decades I have realised how crucial it is, as we age and potentially become frailer, to have someone, a firm like ours, which you can trust, our assets and the majority of our investible wealth, in between us and a scammer. This is to help ensure that when we have become vulnerable (a status which can be temporary or permanent and afflict all of us throughout our lives, at any time from experience coming our way, let alone more likely under illness, frailty and advancing age) so that we have an extra layer of protection from those who would wish to prey on us.
Yes, it can be an external scammer, a romance scam, a ‘best investment opportunity’, a bank fraud or whatever but it can also be a close family member or friend who tries to justify their fraudulent endeavours on some ‘need’ or plight’ which they think gives them the right to steal from you.
We have acted as an effective barrier on many occasions for clients in the past. We can’t necessarily stop the most tenacious family members or ‘friends’ but we can do what is necessary – I recall reporting one such instance to the Police, conversing with social workers and the Court of Protection – we did our bit to protect this vulnerable and naive man from this woman who was keen to wheedle her way around his finances.
You may well think that you are and will remain absolutely capable to look after your own assets ad infinitum but when might you think it is wise to at least shuffle some across to a firm like ours to begin to build a relationship which you too, would like to trust, so come the time, you have a confidant too with whom you can always discuss anything – including situations like this which you might face, let alone how someone may be trying to manipulate your finances.
Just please don’t leave it too late. You may be mean and think that paying a meagre fee for management, guidance and advice to you and your dearest in due time is unnecessary but what if you lose 100% of some or all of your investible capital – does that not have a value? Even starting with a smaller sum of investments will give you the opportunity of seeing how the systems function and a chance to build confidence.
Good news/bad news
This week, all I am going to report is our silver holding and also the gains across our mining stocks and Trusts. Silver was $28.90 on 1 January and today is $69.06. It was $29.57 on 4 April so the concentrated gain since then has reminded me of the last precious metals’ runs (eg up to 2012) and some speculative activity like Poseidon Nickel in 1969 which lifted all miners.
That story is worth a read – that September a major find was reported and in 1970 the shares went from a few cents to A$280. What then happened? Poseidon went bust in 1974… and remember that with all ‘special’ asset bubbles that there are always special reasons for the excited pundits to ‘explain’ the activity but history looks back usually and simply reports a bubble which bursts as ‘normality’ returns.
That said, there are plenty of speculative penny share miners on AIM – a neglected market and maybe investors could adapt a shotgun approach and might just strike-it-lucky… that’s not an investment recommendation of course! That said, so many platforms limit what their clients can now buy if the assets are deemed to be too risky or complicated so maybe you’ll only be able to watch from the sidelines! We do have a little exposure for some clients…
One unrelated disappointment has been the poor handling of Crystal Amber’s related fund manager’s retirement announced on 14 November and a sale of part of Saba’s shares to the new manager, Tarncourt which has a different direction albeit still dealing with Morphic Medical, the largest remaining asset. The Company is still buying-back shares but the price has drifted 28% from its high on 31 July. Clearly, much rides on Morphic’s ultimate valuation and selling level. Brilliant hopes for a great concept do not always result in financial success. We’re still there for now – waiting!
Finally here, will Shell bid for BP? The lock-up period is ending. BP is far too cheap anyway so maybe there is plenty of value in that… meantime I hope it doesn’t sell Castrol Lubricants as the mooted price is far too cheap.
Error
I am sorry to report a mistake in the last eshot. The facts were correct that Saga’s price is now well above its flotation price but what I had forgotten was that the stock had been consolidated at the rate of ‘15 for 1’. We didn’t buy for clients at the launch (though a small profit was available for those who did and who sold quickly afterwards) but the equivalent highest price to which the shares went was actually £33.03… so whilst the shares have done very well of late… they are still not far above a tenth of that now. Thank you Alastair for noting that clarification!
Testimonials
And finally, some lovely testimonials from two long-standing clients, thank you JT and LR!
‘As always a thank you to you and your Firm for the financial care giving during the year. Brilliant’.
And ‘as ever – thanks for an excellent service this last year’. Thank you!
My best wishes
Philip J Milton DipFS CFPCM Chartered MCSI FPFS FCIB
Chartered Wealth Manager
Fellow Of The Personal Finance Society, Fellow Of The Chartered Institute Of Bankers
Risk Warning
Stock market investments offer income through the payment of dividends and interest and good opportunities for capital appreciation over the longer term. Generally this means periods over five years, preferably much longer. However, we can never promise you particular returns, especially in the short-term. At any point in time but especially in the short term, your capital could be worth less than the original amount invested as some of the selected holdings may fall in value, regardless of expectations when investing. We may also invest in funds holding overseas securities. The value of these will increase or decrease as a result of changes in currency exchange rates. Returns achieved in the past cannot be relied upon to be repeated.
To remind you, why do I send out occasional emails? Because everyone can save money. We have no connection with any companies mentioned and you have to make your own contacts and satisfy your own enquiries. What is in it for us? If we can prove we are knowledgeable and that our service and advice have good value, then you might contact us for professional financial planning and investment help. You don’t have to do that of course and there’s no charge for emails. If simply you save or make money, then accept them with our compliments! However, you’ll know where we are!
If you have any queries of any form or indeed any subjects we could consider, please contact me. Our website is available too: www.miltonpj.net. We celebrated our 40th anniversary in 2025 and have been publishing a well-respected independent column in the local Paper since not long after we started and free client newsletters as well.
Do not forget the usual caveats – this is not ‘advice’ and you are encouraged to seek that before embarking upon any financial route involving investments, etc. Philip J Milton & Company plc, its directors, officers, employees and shareholders may own shares personally in any company mentioned.
Data is sourced externally. Although we check to ensure it is as accurate as possible, we cannot be responsible for data from third parties. If you wish to buy any investment, product or service because of this update please seek advice or conduct your own research before doing so. We cannot be liable for decisions made as a result of our publication (and where no advice has been sought). Past performance does not guide future performance. Investments can fall and rise.
