I was reminded recently that on 14 April it was the anniversary of the Titanic hitting the iceberg, in 1912. Had it hit it head-on, it would not have sunk. Are there analogies here for President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements…?
This is either the fact that 90% of the problem isn’t obvious or maybe that too much skirting around and can-kicking down the road actually leads to far worse outcomes than tackling some of the problems in a direct fashion? I’ll leave that to you – and time to decide.
So London has now dropped-out of the top five wealthiest cities globally after we have persuaded so many to leave by ratcheting-up the taxes we expect them to pay. How very foolish of the Labour Government (the Conservatives started the rot, even if the initial changes were shrewd and indeed increased revenue to the Chancellor) not seeing loads disappear altogether. Apparently last year 11,300 millionaires left the UK of which 18 had over $100million and two billionaires. Is this the worst of political envy manifesting itself?
The falls last year were second only to Moscow – some accolade but we’ll all end-up paying the price with higher taxes and smaller State spending to cover the gap they leave. Portugal, Spain and the UAE gained most and city-wise, New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles are up the top, with Singapore and Tokyo. We are now told that CGT receipts were down £1.4billion on last year – I wonder why.
Our economic growth for the month was just a tad higher but now the IMF has cut its expectations for the world and that includes us. Meantime the cost of government borrowing has soared (a quarter higher) and the amount of monthly debt has rocketed as well – not good, not good at all. Even the new record IHT receipts of £8.4billion for the year haven’t dented the overspend. The government will be forced into real public spending cuts including benefits and excessive and expensive staffing and then further tax increases and lower interest rates to cut the cost of its own debt liabilities ahead – good luck on all those.
That’s at the same time that UK Consumer Confidence sinks to an all-time low. Regardless of President Trump, Rachel from Accounts hasn’t done a very good job either, has she…? The only positive thing from all this is that it is easier to report improvement in the future…
Trump mania
I shall let you decide where the mania is and how it’s reverberating. So far, taking a single snapshot, we could say what has the effect to clients’ strategies been – for us, pleasingly, negligible. However, we have gone to print to warn clients about the acute volatility which will persist and that must direct their considerations.
Oddly enough, we have not seen masses of material from other advisers and investment management firms to their clients – why not? This is the time their clients want to hear from them. We know we are not paid to incur the extra costs of writing hard copy to everyone but we believe it is the right thing to do and to reassure.
It is humbling, then, when one of our 90-year-old clients calls, appreciatively, to congratulate us on the letter we have compiled for clients and the reassurance it has given. We guarantee our clients one thing – we’ll always try our best.
However, some in the industry have said it is best for advisers not to write to clients, as that suggests they are as concerned as their clients might be and thus don’t know what to do. I think that is not the answer and if a suitably-worded letter cannot be composed by your adviser to give guidance and share views in the face of such situations, then probably it is time to change adviser to be frank… here are a couple of extra comments received:-
‘I do read all your newsletters which I find helpful and guiding’.
‘Meanwhile thanks for your recent Newsletter that we found both ‘calming’ and informative in the current climate’.
Good news/bad news
Nice to see a bid for De La Rue at £1.30 – a long time coming but arrived in the end. Our far larger collective exposure to Crystal Amber which has it as its second biggest investment will also benefit of course so a double win there, itself up 7% on the day. The shares were 30p in June 2023 and the bid £1.30 – a long wait for us but well worth it in the end even if just recovering some earlier losses for some too.
However, Mobico’s sale of its US Bus services at a thumping loss saw its shares slump – the Company will be better resourced through the other side but the market has been shocked. Is there really enough money to be made in public transport facilitation at all?
Where to invest
It is interesting to note that 35% of the FTSE250 is investment funds, so not direct companies (and funds which cover the whole world and all asset classes too of course). As readers will know, this index (the one below the FTSE100) has underperformed its bigger brethren for years now but at some point, things will break, with a vengeance. We’re very well positioned for that, when (not if) it happens!
A very interesting Black Rock report notes that over the last 2.5 years the effect has been a 45% under-performance and the FTSE100 hasn’t been especially great (though doing admirably so far this year).
Saving people from themselves
Sometimes, there is no hope. However hard we try, people go-off and do foolhardy things and end-up in the mess of which we were fearful in the first place. Yes, the individual may have been well-meaning but why do they do it and why, perhaps more importantly, do they not trust heavily regulated financial advisers which have oodles of experience, qualifications and honesty behind them (but no, they are not perfect either but you have some serious protection).
This is an industry failing, where regulations have demanded so much ‘consumer protection’ but where it then dissuades many from doing the ‘right thing’ and they end up being duped by charlatans. If you have a great relationship with a firm which you can trust, do you value that as much as you should too, as sadly there aren’t ever so many out there with the best of integrity and with your best interests at heart and not theirs…
A man has been banned from operating after losing £8.5million for around 250 ‘investors’ who were duped into thinking they were investing in some Brazilian ethical forestry scheme. The biggest claim was £636,000 but the minimum was £5,000. Please – trust a reputable, staunchly independent financial adviser and when you have one you can ‘trust’ then don’t let go of that relationship.
On top of this we are told £214million has been lost through social media scams over the last five years. I suggest it is much more as many don’t even report it – please do be careful and remember – if investing or transacting, do it with a real FCA regulated business. However appealing the opportunity, it ain’t any good at all if you don’t have regulatory protection and frankly, if it was good, then it would ensure it had it, to protect you in the first place. Think about it!
The London Stock Exchange offers all the opportunities under the sun these days – from the most boringly safe to the most speculative and you can pick between them if you wish to do so, if not letting a professional manage things properly for you.
My best wishes
Philip J Milton DipFS CFPCM Chartered MCSI FPFS FCIB
Chartered Wealth Manager
Fellow Of The Personal Finance Society, Fellow Of The Chartered Institute Of Bankers
