Oh dear, so the latest UK economics’ figures for the month suggest there was zero growth (and also August’s government borrowing was higher than expected as well). As I have shared before, chancellors pre-spend their projection of economic growth’s increased tax revenues so when it doesn’t happen… and the flip side is then more people on benefits costing bigger public expenditure and making things worse.
The Chancellor’s reckless rewriting of the rules last year (and over-spending and over-borrowing) really has come back to bite her in the bottom. Remember too, in theory the extra State spending and bigger Minimum Wage should feed-through to higher consumer confidence and spending and thus ‘economic growth’ anyway but that hasn’t happened either. Still, we had an exceptional State Visit helping to buoy confidence in some quarters at least! Well done Sir Keir, King Charles and the full entourage!
Even inflation increases prices, etc and whilst not good if too high, again, something which should result in stimulated economic outcomes. On top of that, inflation remains stubbornly higher than it should be at 3.8% and especially in food at over 5% despite low base commodity prices – all instead reflective of suppliers and retailers having to pass-on the higher costs created by… the Chancellor. Inheritance Tax receipts hit a record £8.2billion in 2024/5 and a likely easy target for the Chancellor to take more going forward as well.
On the eve of President Trump’s visit, Dr Arthur Laffer (famous for the Laffer Curve) noted that further tax rises by the Chancellor are likely to be destructive and end-up with lower tax revenues, as people tax-rebel at her actions. I think he must have been reading my own comments on this very same subject and indeed, the failure to see economic growth (and thus extra tax from that) is exacerbated by her actions last year. There’s more budgetary pressure too as the State Pension is scheduled for a 4.7% rise next April – way above inflation. That will begin to become interesting for tax – as that nudges more above the Personal Tax Allowance, how is the taxman going to collect the tax due from those without other pension sources to use the Coding system?
Meanwhile, silver hits $43, its highest level for 14 years and gold surpasses its inflation-adjusted peak seen in 1980 (charts back to 1950). The precious metal bulls are out in force as the momentum has continued – we’ve had exposure to the former for some years now (and miners for even longer) but as the masses are piling-in, it seems it may be coming to a point of imagining things have run ahead of themselves.
Many miners are still very good value however and under-priced against the underlying metals but new peaks in bullion, for whatever the reason, suggest that at some point after the ascent there is a descent. Yes, Russia and China are gobbling-up gold but that won’t continue for ever and the cost of holding it (lost opportunity return elsewhere) against escalating long-term government borrowing rates may have something to say at some point.
Aside from that, the World Nuclear Association noted that uranium demand is likely to almost double by 2030 and to surpass supply unless new sources are found, as many mines are likely to be depleted at just the same time (and mines not necessarily where you’d want them either). This shortfall will have a significant impact on prices – we have some uranium in strategies and again, have done for some time but maybe we need some more.
Brown and green aversion
Institutions have had pressure to not lend money to nor to insure fossil fuel companies’ legitimate business activities which have had to go to rather less salubrious regimes to arrange their needs and typically at more expensive rates (higher prices which they have to pass-on). But also favoured green projects are not so popular as lenders and insurers alike are recognising the risks can be higher and the rates chargeable not being economic (and some negativity as a result of the green infrastructure funds launched at the peak of enthusiasm which have turned into real dogs). Reduced subsidies are also taking their toll.
Indeed, Lloyds of London CEO Patrick Tiernan announced that its syndicates would no longer be pressurised into stopping cover for fossil fuel companies, noting that it needs to remain ‘apolitical’. Several big banks have withdrawn from the Net Zero Banking Alliance too. Some of this has reverberations for London as it was the intended centre for green finance, green jobs and part of the theoretical economic growth that it was also to have created for the UK.
And to confound green investors again… Norwegian fossil fuel firm Equinor saves Ørsted, the world’s leader in developing and operating offshore wind farms by investing a cool $1billion in it. It is also raising $9.4billion in new shares too – a big recapitalisation. Should green investors still own the company or not? Curiously, Norway, with one of the largest Sovereign Wealth Funds in the world as it didn’t squander its North Sea Oil wealth as did we… is now pumping more oil and gas than ever… something of a compromise to the Wealth Fund which benefits from these resources and despite ostensibly declaring its green credentials in what it holds (though less radical now than it has been).
Fortieth celebration
Our celebrations are continuing with our big party tomorrow at Trimstone and if you have been invited I hope you have shared your RSVP if you are able to attend! We have magic, music, a mentalist, fireworks, escapologist… two of whom have been on Britain’s Got Talent… See many of you there for what promises to be a fantastic time!
As a further tribute, at the bottom we have repeated some very humbling testimonials received recently and hope you enjoy them. Thank you so much to all those who have sent these and so many more. We are truly humbled.
The UK market
We read yet more doom and gloom about the UK Stockmarket, once the leader in the world and we must still not under-estimate the power and influence of the ‘City’. However, international and national investing institutions are deserting it and there is a number of reasons. I shan’t repeat those here.
What I shall repeat is, regardless of the political and economic backdrop and sentiment (which are negative), the UK market remains one of the most under-valued in the world. This means that the opportunities for upside from its shares are excellent, not because things will suddenly ‘change’ but because the value is so compelling. Remember too, so many of our big companies which make-up the ‘stockmarket’ are also multinational firms, not just selling widgets to the UK national market.
The second reason is that the main market in the world, the US, is frighteningly expensive yet again, so the UK offers a port in an impending storm with far less downside risk and dividends to protect you and to keep the cogs oiled during a bad time. Neither exists in the overblown US market and the ‘concentration risk’ which so many investors face – but they don’t even see that as a ’risk’. Here’s an unrelated question though – at what level should someone take-out a short on Rolls Royce Plc…? We don’t own any, incidentally!
Amigos and a boring project
We were delighted to be able to step-in when a major backer shied-away from supporting Amigos with its Ugandan bore hole project this year so we offered to match-fund. The outcome was a great success with three commissioned! When investing in people isn’t ‘bore-ing’ – Amigos appeal sees a great response – North Devon Today
Finfluencers
So finally the Regulator has begun to clamp-down on finfluencers, with the first three up before magistrates and who are accused of pumping currency investment scams without any regulatory protection (not that pumping such scams is ever a wise or regulated activity anyway!).
However, there is a bevy of so-called counsellors out there and it is hard, sometimes, to know the difference between guided comment and actual financial promotion and even for regulated firms, the lines between ‘guidance’ and ‘advice’ are grey at the best of times. The week before, a 74-year-old ostensibly retired professor was jailed for doing similarly. John Burke stole £160,000 from an elderly, vulnerable lady who he had convinced he would invest her savings wisely. Please seek regulated advice…
This is also an interesting comment I read last week too – about ‘financial contentment’ – “A common theme that runs through behavioural finance studies is our – often mistaken – belief that others are earning more than us.” I wonder how true that sense of misguided discontent is? Surely the base line is ‘contentment with where you are at’ first, a principle that doesn’t stifle aspiration and a desire to improve one’s position (and that of our families) but happiness in that base line and that in itself then helping our life attitude going forward.
For many too, it’s not our income that is the problem but what we spend our money upon (and seemingly, often the lack of realism in what we can afford) that causes the financial distress as well as not putting something aside for the inevitable emergencies which come everyone’s way.
How well-off are you or do you feel? We have a handy budget planner and it may be useful to complete if you are not sure. Click here then select ‘Budget Planner’ under the Questionnaires section.
And remember, it’s often those earning considerable sums who feel they don’t earn (or have) enough as their expectations race ahead of their realities…
Good news/bad news
Well we have trimmed some more Fresnillo – and regretting trimming some earlier but is such a profit ever to be frowned upon? Everyone wants them now and not long ago ‘no one’ wanted them… we’ve also sold the last of our Barclays – I should not be surprised to see a windfall tax in the next Budget…
McBride reassured the market with strong results and improving prospects – we had been trimming at higher levels but can’t complain. PZ Cussons is also finally sorting its African woes but again, brands with far superior values than the market attributes to them now. Pollen Street goes from strength to strength too – awaiting news of a major flotation which will transform valuations depending on the ‘price’. Jupiter jumps 12% as Peel Hunt suggests the Company’s recent acquisition will boost earnings and economise costs – the recovery in the share price is long overdue and we are very happy! That’s double the end April figure and at those lower levels we reprioritised purchases so have quite a few, even if we bought some too soon!
Premier Global Renewables is winding-up, scheduled for December. Presently the shares trade on a 12% discount so purchases today, all other things being equal, will secure a bonus of 14% simply by waiting. Movement in the portfolio’s assets and income received are on top and as the date approaches, the portfolio will be realised for cash of course. We have a reportable stake and have been adding.
I was about to note no specific ‘bad news’ of note – but then Hydrogen Capital Growth Fund announces the temporary suspension of its shares as the new manager cannot complete the underlying valuations in time to publish the latest accounts. The accounting expression ‘material uncertainty’ is used and fears that some investee companies are struggling and needing refinancing, all of which will affect the net asset valuation adversely. The shares have been trading way below that anyway so in theory the net impact should be negligible but introducing new uncertainties is likely to be negative when the shares relist.
Sadly, this is another ‘green’ fund in trouble as hopes and aspirations are not matched by economic reality in the timeframe needed but we remain positive – on both counts. However, ‘green’ investors need to be wary in that the risks are higher – see previous performance statistics for the ‘clean energy’ sector and remember Ørsted.
Maxims – being a better investor – from the ‘Basil of Barnstaple’
7. Does your fund manager invest in the very things he is encouraging you to hold? Indeed, do they even have stakes in the funds they manage?
Sponsorship
Amongst other things, we are delighted in a small way to be supporting Cesare, a touring theatrical troupe and coming to Barnstaple on 18 October as well. You can read a lovely, ringing endorsement of the production here:-https://www.theftr.co.uk/cesare-pleasure-dome-and-somerset-opera-strode-theatre-street-and-touring/
The critiques have been compelling so it promises to be a great Show if you can make it! Next year, they hope to be staging Charles Dickens’ ‘The Signalman’ at Valley of Rocks, Lynton as well between 7-18 July and this open-air performance promises to be exceptional! It will be a cast led by Charles’ great-great-grandson so there! They are looking for sponsorship to help make sure that all happens too so if you wish to help, do contact them.
Some recent testimonials
We would not like you to think that we have not been grateful for your friendly advice and help and results over the past 30+ years of our association with you. This has given us much peace of mind. We were hoping to accept your invitation to a cream tea with you all, but disability with age has caused us to put off making the decision and we have now left it too late. Many thanks indeed and long may you continue to prosper over the years ahead. JA 10228 South Molton September 2025
Thank you too, for the way you have managed our funds over the years. RC 23867 Woolacombe September 2025
Thank you for your kindness and help to me and my family over many years. AM 30026 Canada September 2025
I have been very happy with the service Philip J Milton has supplied. You are very informative and make understanding my pension investment easy. CR 00350 Derbyshire September 2025
My husband and I have been delighted with the expertise Scott and your business has looked after our finances over the last few years. TA 26883 Bude September 2025
Congratulations Philip and Family on 40th anniversary of the firm. JC 18624 Barnstaple September 2025
Congratulations on your 40th Anniversary and growing a very successful business. CJ 13382 Tenerife September 2025
Congratulations again Philip! Unfortunately, we won’t be joining you on the 20th, not because of the distance or advancing years but because we had already arranged our annual visit to Exmouth for the 29th September, ie a week later. This is our Wedding Anniversary when we meet up with our best man and his wife and see (remaining) friends in the area. We hope all goes well and here’s to the next 40! KB 17762 Northants September 2025
I am writing to congratulate you on Philip J Milton & Company Plc’s 40 year anniversary, and for your very kind pledge of £40,000 in grants to local good causes. Many worthy local charities and voluntary organisations in North Devon survive on limited financial means and the contribution made by dedicated volunteers. Your generosity will make a big difference to their good works.
These are challenging times for businesses, and building something that remains successful for forty years is no mean feat. I know that a great deal of unseen work will have gone into your company behind the scenes over the years, and I hope that what your team have achieved will encourage others to pursue ambitious projects of their own. It is a lasting testament to your success to be able to give something positive back to your local community. The impact of these donations will stretch far and wide, and that will be a legacy in which to take great pride. Well done once again on reaching such a significant anniversary this year, and I look forward to seeing the success of good causes, right across North Devon. Member of Parliament, London, September 2025
I take this opportunity to thank you and your staff for all the help, support and kind attention over the past years, with particular thanks to Scott. CB 25037 Scotland September 2025
The Quarterly Upshot received last Saturday brought good news so thanks to you and your team! Finally, thanks and congratulations in achieving 40 successful years in financial planning. AD 29395 Exeter August 2025
Thank you for your kind invitation to share in your 40th anniversary celebrations. Having a family association with the company dating back to 1992 when my mum and dad made their first investments it would have been good to have been there with you. Unfortunately, my wife and I will be on holiday that weekend and so are unable to attend. May I take this opportunity to wish the celebrations well and we look forward to a continued successful relationship over the coming years. CV 24988 Exeter August 2025
I want to thank you for the very kind invite but most importantly want to express my gratitude to all staff for their help and for front of house being incredibly welcoming. Also, a special thanks to Scott for all his assistance and wanted to wish PJM & Co all the best for the future and to continue as we are. Unfortunately, I will be unable to make the 20th due to another engagement but wish everyone a lovely evening. JM 26710 Barnstaple August 2025
I have now received the July quarterly statement and thought I would just drop you a line to say thank you for the hard work you and your team must have done to increase my investment by so much in the last quarter. AD 21078 Norfolk August 2025
My best wishes
Philip J Milton DipFS CFPCM Chartered MCSI FPFS FCIB
Chartered Wealth Manager
Fellow Of The Personal Finance Society, Fellow Of The Chartered Institute Of Bankers
